Environmental regulations in China and their effect on air pollution and infant mortality
Synopsis
This study quantifies the impacts of air pollution and related regulations on infant mortality in China. To establish causality, Dr. Tanaka exploits plausibly exogenous variations in air quality generated by environmental regulations since 1995. These legislations imposed stringent regulations on pollutant emissions from power plants.
The results suggest that the regulations led to significant reductions in air pollution and infant mortality rate (IMR). Dr. Tanaka estimates that 25,400 fewer infants died per year than would have died in the absence of the regulations, corresponding to about a 21% decline in IMR. The findings also reveal that infants from low socioeconomic families are more vulnerable to the effect of pollution. More importantly, the analysis highlights the important role of maternal exposure to pollution on fetal development.
The instrumental variable estimates indicate that a 1% reduction in total suspended particulates results in a 0.95% reduction in IMR, whereas a 1% reduction in sulfur dioxide results in a 0.82% reduction in IMR. The estimated impact of a unit change in total suspended particulates is of similar magnitude to that found in the US, but the elasticity is substantially higher in China, highlighting the greater benefits associated with regulations when pollution is already quite high.
Bio
Shinsuke Tanaka is Assistant Professor of Economics at the Fletcher School at Tufts University. His research interests are in the field of development economics, with a focus on health and environment. His current work investigates the effect of air pollution in China on infant mortality, using environmental regulations as an exogenous variation in air pollution levels across time and localities.
He has also been working on the effect of access to health infrastructure on child health status in South Africa by examining the effect of removal of user fees from medical services to children in the postapartheid period.
