IHME's research undergoes a rigorous internal and external review process prior to publication in top academic journals. The research publications listed below stem from IHME's core research produced by IHME researchers, research teams, and collaborators.
Over the last 30 years, HIV/AIDS has emerged as a major global health challenge. Globally, the trend is that non-communicable diseases and injuries are accounting for a larger share of disease burden, but HIV/AIDS is a notable exception. Maintaining and expanding the response to the epidemic will require assessment of its magnitude and impact at the country level. It is also critical to examine the HIV/AIDS epidemic in the context of other health problems to clearly understand its impact and effectively allocate resources.
In 2012, data from GBD 2010 were published, providing results for 1990, 2005, and 2010. Hundreds of collaborators reported summary results for the world and 21 epidemiologic regions, covering 291 diseases and injuries, 1,160 sequelae of these causes, and mortality and burden attributable to 67 risk factors. GBD 2010 addressed a number of major limitations to previous analyses, including strengthening the statistical methods used for estimation and using disability weights derived from surveys of the general population. Metrics produced include leading causes of death, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), which are the years of healthy life lost by a person due to death or disability.
Under-5 mortality, the probability of death before age 5, is an important indicator of child health in a population. Because estimates of under-5 mortality are often derived from birth history data from censuses or surveys, it is important to know how accurate these estimates are, particularly estimates derived from small samples of women. Researchers aimed to assess the magnitude and direction of error for estimates derived from birth histories using several analysis methods.
HIV prevalence over time is a critical metric for understanding the effectiveness of programs aiming to prevent HIV. Prevalence is often measured using surveillance of clinic patients, which can lead to selection bias: clinics located in areas of high HIV prevalence are often the first to be monitored by the surveillance systems, distorting the estimated HIV prevalence based on clinic data. To help understand the impact of selection bias on the estimation of HIV prevalence trends, researchers compared the efficacy of two approaches for handling selection bias.
The United States spends more than any other country on health care, but US life expectancy at birth ranked 40th for males and 39th for females globally in 2010. To help understand this poor national performance, as well as the large disparities seen in life expectancy across communities, researchers estimated age-specific mortality rates for males and females by US county from 1985 to 2010.
Obesity and lack of physical activity are associated with several chronic conditions, such as heart disease and diabetes, increased health care costs, and premature death. Since different local governments have pursued different approaches to address both risks, levels of obesity and physical activity are likely to vary substantially across counties. To understand local trends in physical activity and obesity that would help identify successful and less successful strategies, researchers examined county-level changes in physical activity and obesity between 2001 and 2011.
To better inform national health policy, it is critical to understand the major health problems in the United States and how they are changing over time. Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010), researchers compared health outcomes in the US with those of the 34 countries in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
China has seen striking declines in child mortality and an increase in life expectancy due to rapid demographic and epidemiological changes in the past few decades, yet dietary risks, tobacco use, and the rise of non-communicable diseases such as cancer pose risks to continued improvements in health.
The United Kingdom has provided universal health care and public health programming for more than six decades. To guide future policymaking in the UK, it is important to analyze trends in population health over time. Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010), researchers examined three critical questions: what are the patterns of health loss in the UK, what are the leading preventable risks that explain some of those patterns, and how do UK outcomes compare to a set of comparable countries in the European Union (EU) and elsewhere in 1990 and 2010.
The goal of this research was to estimate deaths and years of lives lost (YLLs) by age, sex, and region for 235 causes at two points in time – 1990 and 2010. This information can be used to better inform global efforts to assess whether society is or is not making progress in reducing the burden of premature – and especially avoidable – mortality.