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Deaths due to malaria by age and country mapped over time (Global), 1980-2010

With this interactive map, explore trends in global malaria mortality between 1980 and 2010. You can see areas of the world with the most deaths from malaria and how most countries with a high malaria burden have seen strong declines in recent years. Click the play button in the bottom right-hand corner to watch the map change over time.

Tips for using this tool are provided under the “how to explore” tab below.

Data Visualization

How to ExploreData StoriesTerms Defined
  • Click the “Data” button to the left of the map to switch indicators. Indicators include the total number of deaths from malaria and the cumulative probability of death from malaria in different age groups. Once you select the indicator you’d like to view in the map, choose a year under the indicator name. As a default, select 2010.
  • Click the play button in the bottom right-hand corner to watch the map change over time.
  • Click a range on the left legend next to the map to view all countries on the map that fall within that range of deaths from malaria or cumulative probability of death from malaria. Hit play, and you will see trends in these countries change over time in the line chart to the right of the country list.
  • To focus on a specific country or several countries, click on a specific country in the country list. Choose other countries by holding the “Ctrl” button on your keyboard and clicking on another country name. Hit play and watch the trends in the countries you’ve selected change over time in the line chart. 
  • Zoom in and out of the map by using the plus and minus signs.
  • Right-click anywhere on the visualization to view additional interactive options, such as adding text boxes or shapes. By right-clicking, you can also print the visualization with your custom additions (i.e., your current zoom settings or any text or shapes you added).

Watch how the numbers of people dying from malaria change over time. Select “No. of malaria deaths” and “2010” under the “Data” button, and click the play button in the bottom right-hand corner. Watch as countries turn red, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, indicating the highest range of deaths from malaria. You’ll see that after around 2004, some of these countries change colors and drop to a lower range of malaria deaths. Watch also how, in countries outside of Africa, most countries had a steady decline in malaria deaths since 1980.

To see these trends in specific countries, select Kenya, Tanzania, and Zambia in the country list (hold down the “Ctrl” button to select more than one country). You can see the trends in these countries over time displayed in the line chart. Hover your cursor over points in the line chart to see the numbers of deaths from malaria in each country. You’ll notice that the number of deaths from malaria in Kenya decrease after 2000, deaths in Tanzania decrease after 2002, and deaths in Zambia decrease after 2003.

No. of malaria deaths: the total number of deaths from malaria

No. of malaria deaths (under 5): the number of deaths from malaria in children under age 5

No. of malaria deaths (5+): the number of deaths from malaria in people aged 5 and over

No. of malaria deaths (15+): the number of deaths from malaria in people aged 15 and over

Cumulative prob. of death per 1,000: the total number of people out of 1,000 who are likely to die from malaria in the absence of all other causes from birth to age 80

Cumulative prob. of death per 1,000 (under 5): the number of children under age 5 out of 1,000 who are likely to die from malaria in the absence of all other causes

Cumulative prob. of death per 1,000 (5+): the number of people between ages 5 to 80 out of 1,000 who are likely to die from malaria in the absence of all other causes

Cumulative prob. of death per 1,000 (15+): the number of people between ages 15 to 80 out of 1,000 who are likely to die from malaria in the absence of all other causes

Data and Methods

Data for download

Malaria deaths and cumulative probability of death (per 1,000) for all ages by country, and year (Global), 1980-2010 (75KB xls)

Malaria deaths and cumulative probability of death (per 1,000) by age group, country, and year (Global), 1980-2010 (82KB xls)

 

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Related Publications & Presentations

Research Articles

Murray CJL, Rosenfeld LC, Lim SS, Andrews KG, Foreman KJ, Haring D, Fullman N, Naghavi M, Lozano R, Lopez AD. Global malaria mortality between 1980 and 2010: a systematic analysis. The Lancet. 2012; 379:413-431.

Read the Article
View the Publication Summary and Data

Related News & Events

News Releases
Malaria kills nearly twice as many people than previously thought, but deaths are declining rapidly
February 1, 2012

Malaria is killing more people worldwide than previously thought, but the number of deaths has fallen rapidly as efforts to combat the disease have ramped up.

Read more

Our Approach

In February 2012, IHME published in The Lancet global estimates for malaria mortality: Global malaria mortality between 1980 and 2010: a systematic analysis. The new estimates differed from multiple previous assessments of malaria mortality at the global level and in individual countries, the most recent being the World Malaria Report 2011 by the World Health Organization (WHO).

Our Approach

  • We based our estimates on the broadest range of available data to date for 105 countries: a total of 1,150 site years of data from 1980 to 2010. This includes data from vital registration systems and from verbal autopsy studies.
     
  • Both WHO and IHME use verbal autopsy studies for estimating mortality from all causes and for estimating mortality from malaria specifically. The World Malaria Report 2011 relied on verbal autopsy data for its child mortality estimates for some of the regions it studied. The report says, “Child malaria deaths were estimated using a verbal autopsy multi-cause model (VAMCM) developed by the WHO Child Health Epidemiology Reference Group (CHERG) to estimate causes of death for children aged 1-59 months in countries with less than 80% of vital registration coverage.” IHME used a wider range of verbal autopsy studies to generate its estimates and included adult deaths.
     
  • WHO does not use verbal autopsy studies for estimates of adult deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa, but it does use verbal autopsy studies for estimates of adult deaths in other areas. This is based on two assumptions. The first is the assumption – taught in medical and public health schools – that adults develop immunity from early exposure to malaria and do not die from the disease. The second is the assumption that verbal autopsy studies are not accurate enough to diagnose malaria, because the symptoms of malaria can be similar to other causes of death. IHME, using vital registration data and verbal autopsy studies for both children and adults, found that verbal autopsy studies yield conservative estimates of malaria mortality, meaning that the true number could be even higher.
     
  • For African countries, WHO estimates are based on a model of malaria mortality that takes into account only population growth and the effects of vector control. IHME’s estimates include the effect of chloroquine resistance, the scale-up of artemisinin-combination treatment, environmental factors such as rainfall, and broader socioeconomic determinants.
     
  • To overcome misclassification of malaria deaths attributed to other cases, IHME used an approach developed by IHME Assistant Professor Dr. Mohsen Naghavi and colleagues to account for changes in the International Classification of Diseases and Injuries. With this approach, IHME redistributed deaths that had been called “fever of other and unknown origin,” “disseminated intravascular coagulation,” “other and unspecified infectious diseases,” and “sequelae of other and unspecified infectious and parasitic diseases.” As a result, some of those deaths were reclassified as malaria deaths.
     
  • IHME’s estimates confirm some findings from previous studies. For example, they show that malaria deaths increased by three times through the 1980s and 1990s to a peak in 2004. Previous studies also show an increase in malaria deaths in this period of two to three times. Both the IHME study and previous studies have noted an association with increasing chloroquine resistance.
     

For a detailed discussion of our methods, please see the Web Appendix with the journal article.

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