Mortality

The Mortality research team is developing and advancing methods for quantifying the levels of mortality by age and sex for every country in the world. We are tackling challenges in the measurement of population health by improving upon past methods and developing new tools for analyzing missing, incomplete, and biased data. This will allow us to calculate more accurate estimates for child and adult mortality over the past 30 years and projected to 2015.

Major activities in Mortality:

Produce regular updates to estimates of child mortality:

In 2007, we conducted a thorough review and analysis of under-5 mortality data for more than 170 countries and were able to provide valuable new results by applying novel methods developed by IHME. The data we used were obtained by merging publicly available databases from the World Health Organization and UNICEF, as well as Demographic and Health Survey data and other individual surveys. The estimates are presented on the IHME Datasets page.

We are currently adding data that have since become available and optimizing newly developed methods for under-5 mortality estimation. The resulting updated country estimates for under-5 mortality levels and trends will be made available on our Web site once published.

Produce estimates of adult mortality by country:

Researchers have identified absolute numbers of deaths occurring around the globe as reported through a vast collection of data from vital registration, household surveys, censuses, and individual studies. IHME is refining the country-level mortality rates obtained from these numbers, using the best possible methods to correct for incomplete vital registration systems, address known biases in existing sources, and account for missing data. We are currently finalizing country-level estimates produced from these corrected mortality rates and preparing to release estimates of levels and trends. Regional aggregations of these figures will be updated in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010.

Check and analyze census and household survey mortality data from the PHMRC sites:

As part of the Gates Grand Challenges in Global Health Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC) project, IHME has implemented censuses in several field sites: Hyderabad, India; Lucknow, India; Pemba Island, Tanzania; and Bohol, Philippines. Researchers have successfully tested several versions of mortality questions using both household and sibling history modules. The data collected from approximately 80,000 households have been used to refine mortality estimation methods and to help define a “gold standard” mortality rate for each site. Based upon the results of the census analysis, an improved survey instrument for capturing mortality data was included in the subsequent household survey currently being implemented in approximately 6,000 households per site.

Develop a set of new and improved methods and compare them with existing alternatives:

IHME is working to pioneer new methods for mortality estimation as well as to improve existing methods. In 2010, the mortality research team will present newly developed methods on summary birth history analysis and sibling survival analysis. We also will release a report evaluating current methods for estimating completeness of vital registration data. Additional methods for more accurate adult and child mortality estimation are currently being developed and integrated into the country estimates being prepared for release.

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