Mortality

The Mortality research team is developing cutting edge methods for quantifying the levels of mortality by age and sex for every country in the world. We aim to tackle some of the biggest challenges in population health information by improving upon past methods and developing new tools for analyzing missing, incomplete, and biased data. We are also calculating the best estimates for child and adult mortality over the past 30 years and projected until 2015.

Major activities in Mortality:

Update country-level estimates of under-five child mortality from 1970 to 10 years into the future:

In 2007, we conducted a thorough review and analysis of under-five mortality data for more than 170 countries and were able to provide valuable new results to the world’s global health community by applying novel methods. The data we used were obtained by merging publicly available databases from the World Health Organization and UNICEF, as well as Demographic and Health Survey data and other individual surveys. IHME will update these estimates and predictions on a regular basis using new methods and new data, when available. See our latest results for under-five child mortality on the IHME Datasets page or read about them in the research article published in the Lancet by Murray et al (2007).

Develop new indirect methods to estimate under-five child mortality:

For countries without well-functioning vital registration systems, child mortality is best measured using complete birth histories from survey data. However, complete birth history questions are not always available in national surveys. It is also difficult to obtain subnational estimates of under-five mortality using survey data. To tackle these problems, IHME is improving upon indirect methods using summary birth history information which simply consists of the total number of children a mother has ever had and the number who have survived to the time of the survey. In situations where complete birth histories are too costly to collect or subnational estimates are desired, such summary birth history data and methods to analyze them will provide valuable information for policymakers.

Develop new methods to estimate adult mortality:

Estimates of adult mortality are a crucial component for advancing public health goals, but current estimates can suffer from many data inaccuracies and often rely on strong and unrealistic assumptions. Specific areas of methodological work include evaluating and refining methods to estimate the completeness of death registration and models for analyzing survey data which adjust for biases present in this type of data. The results of this work yield more accurate estimates and thus, better information to researchers and decision-makers.

Produce country-level adult mortality estimates from 1980 to present by age and sex for approximately 170 countries:

Researchers have identified absolute numbers of deaths occurring around the globe as reported through a vast collection of data from vital registration, household surveys, censuses, and individual studies. The second step is to refine the country-level mortality rates obtained from these numbers, using the best possible methods to correct for incomplete vital registration data, address known biases in other existing sources, and account for missing data overall. Final country-level estimates will then be produced from these corrected mortality rates. Regional aggregations of these figures will be updated in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study for 1990 and 2005.

Implement household surveys to test and validate questions on population-level mortality:

As part of the Gates Grand Challenges in Global Health Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC) project, IHME has implemented censuses in several field sites: Bhimavaram, India; Lucknow, India; Pemba Island, Tanzania; and Bohol, Philippines. Researchers have successfully tested several versions of mortality questions using both household and sibling history modules. The data collected from approximately 80,000 households has been used to refine mortality estimation methods and to help define a “gold- standard” mortality rate for each site. Based upon the results of the census analysis, a set of revised questions has been selected for inclusion in a household survey to be implemented at these same sites.

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